Trump-Kim Peace Summit :- An Unrealised Peril for the Indian Nuclear Arsenals?
- The Youth's Lens
- Jun 13, 2018
- 4 min read
Updated: Jun 15, 2018
An analysis of the effects on the political and military aspects of the Republic of India due to their continuous nonchalant towards the NPT, as the DPRK makes a stride towards denuclearisation, by Chandan Samal.
The world was struck with awe yesterday, when two of the most influential leaders of the two countries who have been at war with each other for seven decades, signed a joint statement for the complete denuclearisation of the the Korean Peninsula ending one of the longest and last Cold War legacy. While everyone focuses on how the ‘intense negotiations yield few details on denuclearisation’, the effect of such a stride towards disarmament of nuclear arsenals on the other nations who contempt the NPT, such as India, Israel, Pakistan and South Sudan, go disregarded. Throughout the following post, we will be exploring the possible effects of such a move by Kim Jung-Un, the supreme leader of North Korea and a person who used to ferociously oppose the NPT, on the Indian republic.
So, what exactly happened at the Trump-Kim Singapore summit yesterday?
The daylong historic 'peace summit' took place in Singapore on June 12, 2018. Both the leaders met for an one-on-one session and a larger meeting where after diplomatic discussions Supreme Leader Kim reaffirmed his firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and President Trump “committed to provide security guarantees”. The parties signed a joint statement, which many state 'vague' and 'unprecedented', taking a step forward to ending the Korean civil war which technically has not ended since 25 June, 1950.
Okay..... So where does India get involved here?
The Republic of India is one of the few nations which has not signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the other countries being South Sudan, Pakistan and Iran. A total of 191 States have joined the Treaty, including the five nuclear-weapon States since it's inception. North Korea had announced its withdrawal in 2003, and further announced that it had conducted an underground nuclear explosion in 2006 and 2009. Since, the North Korean leader had been the most ardent supporter of 'nuclear power for all', this step towards denuclearisation puts a pressure on the other 'illegal' nuclear states.
India has detonated nuclear devices, first in 1974 and again in 1998. India is estimated to have enough fissile material for more than 150 warheads. India is among the few countries to have a' no first use' policy, a pledge not to use nuclear weapons unless first attacked by an adversary using nuclear weapons. India has continuously argued that the NPT creates a club of 'nuclear have' and a larger club of 'nuclear have not', but the treaty never explains on what ethical grounds such a distinction is valid. India's then External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee said during a visit to Tokyo in 2007: "If India did not sign the NPT, it is not because of its lack of commitment for non-proliferation, but because we consider NPT as a flawed treaty and it did not recognize the need for universal, non-discriminatory verification and treatment."
What many people are not seeing, and what is left unrealised is that North Korea's new found support towards denuclearisation can be the beginning of denuclearisation of other nations as international pressure builds up. This, maybe, good for world peace however it does more harm to the Indian economy and politics rather than good.
What was the reaction for Indian politicians?
"India welcomes the United States-DPRK (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) Summit held in Singapore. This is a positive development. India has always supported all efforts to bring about peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula through dialogue and diplomacy" - The Ministry of External Affairs, Republic of India
The Indian government gave a positive response towards the talks, hoping that any resolution to the North Korean "peninsula issue" will address New Delhi's concerns about Pyongang's proliferation linkages with India's neighbourhood, seen as an apparent reference to Pakistan.
So, it's all good?
For now. While there has been no statements from the honourable Prime Minister of India, nor have there been any expert analysis of the effects of such a move of denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula on the long standing adversaries of the NPT it does not stop us from thinking of the possible long term effects.
If, Kim Jung-Un were to actually work on his promise of denuclearisation, and this attempt was successful ending the last Cold War conflict, there will be an increase of international pressure on India to also sign the NPT and act towards denuclearisation. Commenting after analysing India's long standing policy regarding the 'unjust' treaty, the republic will not sign/act towards denuclearisation any time soon in the future. This could mean that there will be certain changes in the international relations while gaining favourability and losing alliances with many nations.
But, if the country were to act towards denuclearisation any time soon or if they win in their war of making sure that the treat is just for all, it could mean a great peril for the military power and economic status. Denuclearisation would have a great effect on the Indian military budget, while also making a loss of millions of dollars for the nation. This would also mean that India will slither down in it's ranking of military power, therefore again bringing some serious changes to the foreign policy.
However, this will not happen soon for various reasons. First, the denuclearisation of Democratic People's Republic of Korea is still an ongoing process of interest, and until that is successful, no one is interested on the other adversaries. Secondly, it is highly unlikely that under the Modi government India will sign a NPT which creates 'clubs'. Thirdly, it is even more unlikely that the P5 'nuclear states' will give up their power of having nuclear arsenals in the United Nations. Lastly, analysing the long term conflict between the neighbouring states of Pakistan and India, until Pakistan does not take a step towards denuclearisation India won't, and certainly one of these nations won't be the giver.
Bibliography and References
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/india-welcomes-trump-kim-singapore-summit/articleshow/64559613.cms
https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/
https://www.nytimes.com/?WT.z_jog=1&hF=t&vS=undefined
https://www.economist.com/asia/2018/06/12/donald-trump-and-kim-jong-un-sign-the-blandest-of-agreements
https://www.dailyo.in/politics/donald-trump-kim-jong-un-statement-nuclear-weapons/video/1/24820.html
Written By Chandan Samal
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